Jerome Powell — full corpus, every walk-forward prediction.
Per-speaker drill-down. 71 press conferences and post-meeting Q&A sessions parsed since Mar 2018 – Apr 2026. ≈ 2.1M tokens indexed at the utterance level. 43 meetings scored walk-forward.
Last 10 walk-forward predictions
Each row is a real walk-forward prediction made using only data available at the source presser's timestamp. The outcome was unknown at prediction time. 5 of 10 argmax-correct. The misses are real and are part of the public record — they cluster at the September–October 2025 cut-cycle inflection that the model under-confidently called as hold.
| FOMC date | P(cut) | P(hold) | P(hike) | Argmax | Outcome | Hit? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-19 | 51.0% | 47.5% | 1.5% | cut | hold | ✗ miss |
| 2025-05-07 | 4.8% | 84.7% | 10.6% | hold | hold | ✓ hit |
| 2025-06-18 | 3.9% | 96.1% | 0.0% | hold | hold | ✓ hit |
| 2025-07-30 | 22.6% | 75.8% | 1.7% | hold | hold | ✓ hit |
| 2025-09-17 | 4.0% | 94.2% | 1.8% | hold | cut | ✗ miss |
| 2025-10-29 | 7.6% | 92.2% | 0.2% | hold | cut | ✗ miss |
| 2025-12-10 | 43.9% | 55.2% | 1.0% | hold | cut | ✗ miss |
| 2026-01-28 | 47.4% | 52.3% | 0.4% | hold | hold | ✓ hit |
| 2026-03-18 | 45.8% | 53.9% | 0.2% | hold | hold | ✓ hit |
| 2026-04-29 | 82.9% | 17.0% | 0.1% | cut | hold | ✗ miss |
Cross-asset edges (walk-forward, n=43)
For each asset, the same Ridge model architecture mapped Powell's prior-presser features to the realized FOMC-day move. Direction edge over momentum baseline + annualized Sharpe + Pearson correlation between predicted and actual.
| Asset | Class | Edge over momentum | Sharpe (ann) | ρ (pred ↔ actual) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5y treasury (FVX) | Rates | +0.6pp | 1.62 | +0.46 |
| 10y treasury (TNX) | Rates | +5.4pp | 1.32 | +0.41 |
| S&P 500 | Equities | +12.9pp | 0.66 | +0.40 |
| DXY | FX | +3.1pp | 0.71 | +0.11 |
| LQD (IG credit) | Credit | +7.9pp | 0.74 | +0.02 |
| HYG (HY credit) | Credit | +5.8pp | 0.53 | +0.16 |
| WTI Oil | Commod | +10.6pp | 0.38 | +0.32 |
| BTC | Crypto | +8.4pp | 0.05 | +0.18 |
| VIX | Vol | +3.5pp | 0.45 | +0.19 |
Word-level alpha — which words actually moved equities
For every word in the lexicon, we computed the Pearson correlation between Powell's usage frequency at the prior presser and the realized FOMC-day S&P 500 return. Top 5 in each direction.