Andrew Bailey — early-evidence cross-asset signal on sterling.
Per-speaker drill-down. 22 BoE Monetary Policy Report press conferences parsed since 2020-11 – 2026-02. ≈ 192K tokens. The same Powell-built lexicon was applied to Bailey's transcripts; the strongest signal is on GBP/USD direction, with 17 meetings scored walk-forward. CIs are wide given the small sample — we treat this as early-evidence, not validated. Live pre-registered call for May 8, 2026 is on the main page.
Cross-asset edges (walk-forward, n=17)
Same Ridge model architecture as Powell + Lagarde, applied to BoE-relevant assets. GBP/USD is the strongest target — sterling moves more decisively on Bailey verbal cues than the equity indices do. FTSE 100 (large-cap, multinational) is essentially null; FTSE 250 (more domestic) shows a positive direction edge but the Pearson ρ is negative, which means the magnitude is poorly fit even though direction beats momentum. Disclosed honestly.
| Asset | Class | Edge over momentum | Sharpe (ann) | 95% CI | ρ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | FX | +39.3pp | 0.92 | [-0.03, 2.05] | +0.28 | early |
| FTSE 250 | Equities | +27.2pp | 0.31 | [-0.81, 1.11] | -0.20 | early |
| FTSE 100 | Equities | +2.9pp | 0.13 | [-1.07, 1.04] | -0.12 | early |
Last 10 walk-forward predictions — GBP/USD
Real walk-forward predictions on Bailey's strongest target. 8 of 10 directional hits. The two recent misses (May 2025, Feb 2026) were both cases where the model leaned modestly long sterling and Bailey delivered a more dovish tone than the lexicon features picked up. The May 8, 2026 live call (-0.04% predicted, basically flat) is on the main page and resolves Friday.
| Meeting date | Predicted | Actual | Predicted dir | Actual dir | Hit? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-02 | +0.632% | +0.247% | up | up | ✓ hit |
| 2024-02-01 | -1.254% | -0.134% | down | down | ✓ hit |
| 2024-05-09 | -0.266% | -0.065% | down | down | ✓ hit |
| 2024-08-01 | +0.122% | +0.126% | up | up | ✓ hit |
| 2024-11-07 | -0.115% | -1.229% | down | down | ✓ hit |
| 2025-02-06 | +0.355% | +0.208% | up | up | ✓ hit |
| 2025-05-08 | +0.212% | -0.463% | up | down | ✗ miss |
| 2025-08-07 | +0.515% | +0.440% | up | up | ✓ hit |
| 2025-11-06 | +0.546% | +0.237% | up | up | ✓ hit |
| 2026-02-05 | +0.278% | -0.386% | up | down | ✗ miss |
Bailey only meets quarterly with this MPR cadence, so the n grows slowly. CIs will tighten gradually; we are explicitly not claiming this is validated yet, even though the point estimate is strong (Sharpe 0.92, lower CI just below zero).