A speaker-corpus probability engine for Kalshi mention markets. Three layers: speaker-specific vocabulary base rates from 8-quarter and 3–57-transcript corpora; format-conditional adjustments (rally vs. earnings vs. interview); active news-cycle overrides for event-specific term forcing.
Will Trump say “DoorDash” during remarks?
drifted to ~40¢ pre-event, settled YES
Three days earlier, the White House staged a press conference featuring Sharon Simmons, a DoorDash driver who delivered McDonald’s to the Oval Office. Recent specific news cycle forced specific vocabulary at the next event regardless of nominal topic.
Will Trump say “McDonald’s” during remarks?
drifted to ~40¢ pre-event, settled YES
Same Sharon Simmons / Oval Office press conference. Markets priced both words off stale long-tail base rates from prior rallies; SEER’s news layer caught the forcing function the corpus alone would have missed.
Will Netflix executives say “subscriber” on the call?
Netflix replaced “subscriber” with “members” and “paid memberships” in their lexicon in 2023. Eight quarters of prior transcripts confirmed zero hits. Corporate vocabulary is sticky; markets price word frequency off intuition, SEER prices it off the actual transcript record.
Will Drake say “Toronto” on Iceman?
Resolved YES on release. Toronto-centric rollout thesis paid.
Lifetime corpus: 8 of 18 Drake albums contain “Toronto.” Iceman rollout was Toronto-centric — 25-foot ice sculpture downtown Apr 21, Raptors courtside frozen seats, Episode 1 filmed in Toronto, OVO Sound co-release. Hometown-reset thesis pulled baseline upward. Markets anchored on lifetime base rate, not the rollout.
Will Drake say “OVO” on Iceman?
OVO Sound is the co-release label (with Republic). Branding all over the rollout. Lifetime corpus: 11 of 18 albums (61%). Self-reference / label-tag pattern consistent across recent albums.
Will Drake say “Compton” on Iceman?
Lifetime corpus: 0 of 18 Drake albums. Drake’s pattern in the Kendrick beef has been subliminal, not direct naming — and the UMG defamation appeal is still active. Iceman thesis is Toronto-centric, not LA-coded. Same structural NO pattern that paid on Netflix Subscriber.